Ten years after, shipping industry confidence holds firm

Shipping confidence held steady in the three months to end-May 2018 according to the latest Confidence Survey, which also marks the tenth anniversary.

The average confidence level expressed by respondents was unchanged at the four-year high of 6.4 out of 10.0 recorded in February 2018. Confidence on the part of owners was also sustained at a four-year high, of 6.6, while managers’ confidence was up from 6.4 to 6.7. The rating for charterers was up to 6.7 from 5.0 and confidence in the broking sector was up from 6.1 to 6.3. 

The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was down on the previous survey from 5.5 to 5.2 out of a maximum possible score of 10.0. Confidence was highest among charterers, followed by owners (down from 5.9 to 5.5), managers (down from 5.6 to 5.4) and brokers (down from 4.0 to 3.5).

The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the coming year was down to 63% from 64% last time. Whereas, in the previous survey, charterers were unanimous in expecting finance costs to increase, just a third were of that opinion this time.

The number of respondents expecting higher freight rates in both the tanker and container ship sectors was up, from 39% to 50% and from 38% to 43% respectively. In the dry bulk trades, such expectations were unchanged at 54%. Net sentiment in the tanker sector was +41, in the dry bulk trades +43, and for container ships, +32.

When asked to estimate the level they expected the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to reach in 12 months’ time, 42% of respondents anticipated a figure of between 1500 and 1999, compared to 25% a year ago. Meanwhile, 36% put the likely level at between 1000 and 1499, contrasting with 52% a year ago.