Results of the Q4 2019 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

- Inflation expectations revised down on average across all horizons

- Real GDP growth expectations revised down, particularly for 2020

- Unemployment rate expectations revised up

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2019 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.2% for 2019 and 2020 and 1.4% for 2021. These results represent, for the fourth successive round, downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points on average for each of those years compared with the previous survey round. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, refer to 2024) remained at 1.7%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for growth in euro area real GDP averaged 1.1%, 1.0% and 1.4%1.3% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. This represents downward revisions from the previous round, notably for 2020. At 1.4%, average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth were unchanged.

Average unemployment rate expectations were revised up by 0.1 percentage points for horizons beyond 2020 and stand at 7.6%, 7.5% and 7.4% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. Expectations for the unemployment rate in the longer term were also revised up to 7.4%. Notwithstanding the upward revisions, the latest expectations continued to point to further falls in the unemployment rate.